This week, Reuters exclusively reported that Donald Trump’s support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party’s presumptive presidential nominee. The findings come from the latest Reuters poll conducted as part of an ongoing partnership with research firm Ipsos, which has regularly produced exclusive and agenda-setting data on public opinion in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election in November. In a Reuters Best: Journalist Spotlight Q&A, U.S. Political Polling Editor Chris Kahn offers a behind-the-scenes look at our polling and why it’s so critical in this election cycle.
Q. What is the process for conducting Reuters polls?
A. The Reuters/Ipsos poll is a national online poll. We’re in the field every day, and this allows us to track changes in public opinion more closely than the competition. Our poll gathers responses from about 2,500 people every week, and many respondents volunteer their telephone numbers so that reporters can follow up with them later.
We have a tremendous amount of freedom when it comes to developing poll questions. I work closely with Reuters reporters and editors to develop new ideas. Usually, they want to quantify something that they’re hearing anecdotally from sources. For example, how many Americans agree with North Carolina’s transgender bathroom law? Or how many investors believe that fund managers should try harder to curtail CEO pay? I get a lot of questions like that. Occasionally, I’m able to use polling data to help us see the world a little differently. Recently, for example, our poll showed that nearly half of those Americans who support Trump or Clinton were doing so simply to keep the opposing party from winning.
Q. How do you decide what makes a good news story from the polling results?
A. For me, a good poll story is one that says something we weren’t expecting – and we’ve seen a number of those this year. One recent example was that a majority of Americans agree with Trump that authorities should use torture against suspected terrorists. And, at a time when everyone’s trying to split the country between Republicans and Democrats, it’s interesting to see areas where Americans agree. For example, a majority of voters in both parties want tougher federal gun laws.
Most of the time, I develop a handful of questions to test a specific issue. We may end up using only one or two of them, meaning that the majority of questions never see the light of day. I still enter the data for many of our questions into the Reuters Polling Explorer, and this is where I direct people looking for more information about our polls.
Q. Why is polling so important during an election cycle, and why is it something we find important to provide our readers/customers?
A. Simply put, polling allows us to perform thousands of “person on the street” interviews all at once and in a standardized format. It’s a great way to test theories about what’s going on in the world.
Q. What makes you passionate about journalism?
A. Every day is different, and I get to find out why. What’s not to like about that?
Q. What do you find most fulfilling about your job?
A. The most exciting part of my job comes on the days when I upload new data into our system. Think about it: I have a database powered by hundreds of thousands of interviews about all sorts of topics. Every time new data comes in, I get to be the first to learn how people feel about the leading issues of the day and how those feelings have changed over time. It’s an unmitigated thrill.
Q. What have been your most rewarding and/or most difficult experiences as a journalist?
A. Years ago, I was assigned to cover a mass shooting at a new law school in the heart of Appalachian coal country. The shooter was a student who’d just been expelled. He was also one of the only black students at the school and a recent immigrant; after the shooting, the small town that surrounded the school was reeling from a kind of community anger that I hadn’t felt before. I spent weeks in that town, on and off, and I scored the only interview with the shooter. I still remember sitting with him in a tiny jail cell, our knees almost touching. He said he was mentally ill – he knew it – and he didn’t really know what made him shoot all of those people.
Q. Can you imagine being anything other than a journalist? If so, what?
A. I’ve always wanted to run a bar from the ground floor of my own brownstone. What do I need to do to be one of those guys?
To read the latest from Chris Kahn, click here.
